Finding Expected Value of College Football Recruits

Question: How can we better evaluate college recruits using positional adjustments and expected value?

To answer this, I analyzed recruiting data from 2013 to 2026, combining on3’s industry rankings with NFL Draft data and PFF grades. Here’s what I found:

• Recruiting rankings and PFF grades had a small positive correlation (0.21).
• Recruiting rankings and NFL Draft position had a negative correlation (-0.37 overall, up to -0.58 for 5-star recruits).
• Positional success varies: Safety, Cornerback, and Defensive End showed the strongest correlation with recruiting rankings, while Athlete, Quarterback, and Wide Receiver were the weakest.

Using this data, I developed a model to assign each recruit an expected value on a 10-point scale. These values are adjusted by position using a combination of college football positional value and position-specific correlations. Below are the positional adjustments:

Example: 2025 Texas Longhorns Recruiting Class
Using this system, the top-ranked Texas Longhorns’ class is as follows:

• DT Justus Terry: 5.26 points
• S Jonah Williams: 5.10 points
• DE Lance Jackson: 4.17 points
• CB Kade Phillips: 3.77 points
• WR Kaliq Lockett: 3.08 points
• WR Jaime Ffrench: 2.87 points
• ATH Michael Terry III: 2.84 points
• CB Graceson Littleton: 2.73 points
• LB Elijah Barnes: 2.41 points
• DE Smith Orogbo: 2.40 points
• DT Myron Charles: 2.15 points
• QB KJ Lacey: 1.96 points
• TE Nick Townsend: 1.70 points
• WR Daylan McCutcheon: 1.68 points
• DT Josiah Sharma: 1.61 points
• RB James Simon: 1.43 points
• S Zelus Hicks: 1.12 points
• OT Nick Brooks: 0.75 points
• RB Rickey Stewart Jr: 0.61 points
• LB Jonathan Cunningham: 0.54 points
• CB Caleb Chester: 0.43 points
• TE Emaree Winston: 0.42 points
• IOL Jackson Christian: 0.35 points
• IOL Jordan Coleman: 0.25 points