The RWE (Rematch Win Expectancy) Surprise Score is a metric that quantifies how “surprising” the RWE result is when compared to the real game score.
The Calculation
The Surprise Score is calculated by a combination of X teams real points vs RWE points, the real point differential vs RWE point differential, and extra point being given to games that RWE and the real game had a different winner.
Interpreting the Score
The Surprise Score can be interpreted with this rubric:
- 0–5: RWE aligns very closely with the real score.
- 6–15: Slight differences, but nothing unusual.
- 16–25: At least one team shows a significant discrepancy between real and RWE points.
- 26–35: Very surprising; RWE results diverge meaningfully.
- 35+: Extremely surprising; the RWE result likely predicts a different winner.
Top 10 Surprise Scores of the 2024 College Football Season
| Game | Score | RWE Score | Surprise Score |
| Washington @ Rutgers | Rugers 21-18 | Washington 50-22 | 70 |
| Kansas St @ BYU | BYU 38-9 | BYU 26-23 | 46 |
| Arkansas St @ Michigan | Michigan 28-18 | Michigan 48-6 | 43 |
| Boise St @ Georgia Southern | Boise St 56-45 | Boise St 62-18 | 42 |
| Iowa St vs Miami | Iowa St 42-41 | Miami 44-26 | 41 |
| Alabama @ Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt 40-35 | Alabama 48-29 | 39 |
| Oklahoma St @ Colorado | Colorado 52-0 | Colorado 19-1 | 37 |
| Florida @ Mississippi St | Florida 45-28 | Florida 73-22 | 36 |
| Colorado St @ Nevada | Colorado St 38-21 | Nevada 37-29 | 35 |
| Oregon @ Oregon St | Oregon 49-14 | Oregon 96-27 | 34 |
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