Which NFL Quarterbacks Are Put in the Best Situations to Succeed?

Determining which quarterbacks are set up for success requires analyzing the factors that influence their performance. Using PFF grades, specifically Receiving and Pass Blocking grades, I evaluated how these external factors correlate with Passing grades.

Correlations Between Factors:

• Passing x Pass Blocking: 0.28
• Passing x Receiving: 0.72
• Pass Blocking x Receiving: 0.18

This data reveals a strong relationship between Passing grades and Receiving grades, with Pass Blocking grades playing a secondary but still notable role.

Weighting the Components:

Using a simple regression model, I determined that a QB’s situation is approximately:

• 63% Receiving grade
• 37% Pass Blocking grade

Ranking QB Situations:

Using this data from the past 9 years of data, I calculated a QB situation score for each season, factoring in both Receiving and Pass Blocking grades. Here are the quarterbacks who have been in the best situations on average (only using years when they started):

1. Brock Purdy – 94th percentile
2. Drew Brees – 87th percentile
3. Jimmy Garoppolo – 84th percentile
4. Jameis Winston – 83rd percentile
5. Jalen Hurts – 83rd percentile
6. Jordan Love – 82nd percentile
7. Patrick Mahomes – 81st percentile
8. Tom Brady – 72nd percentile
9. Desmond Ridder – 72nd percentile
10. Kirk Cousins – 71st percentile

And those in the hardest situations:

1. Josh Rosen – 1st percentile
2. Drake Maye – 3rd percentile
3. Bryce Young – 6th percentile
4. Zach Wilson – 10th percentile
5. Daniel Jones – 11th percentile
6. Jacoby Brissett – 14th percentile
7. Ryan Fitzpatrick – 15th percentile
8. Davis Mills – 18th percentile
9. Justin Fields – 22nd percentile
10. Dwayne Haskins – 23rd percentile

Overperformers vs. Underperformers:

By comparing QB Passing grade z-scores with their situations, I identified the biggest overperformers and underperformers on average relative to their situations:

Top Overperformers:

1. Andrew Luck
2. Joe Burrow
3. Jayden Daniels

Top Underperformers:

1. Desmond Ridder
2. DeShone Kizer
3. Jameis Winston

2024 Season Snapshot:

For the 2024 season specifically, here’s how QB situations ranked:

• Best Situations:
  1. Lamar Jackson – 99th percentile
  2. Jared Goff – 97th percentile
  3. Baker Mayfield – 90th percentile
  4. Kirk Cousins – 89th percentile
  5. Sam Darnold – 87th percentile
• Worst Situations:
  1. Drake Maye – 3rd percentile
  2. Winston/Watson – 4th percentile
  3. Daniel Jones – 6th percentile
  4. Derek Carr – 7th percentile
  5. Bryce Young – 8th percentile