Category: Football

  • Which NFL Quarterbacks Are Put in the Best Situations to Succeed?

    Noah

    Determining which quarterbacks are set up for success requires analyzing the factors that influence their performance. Using PFF grades, specifically Receiving and Pass Blocking grades, I evaluated how these external factors correlate with Passing grades. Correlations Between Factors: This data reveals a strong relationship between Passing grades and Receiving grades, with Pass Blocking grades playing… Read more

  • RWE Surprise Score

    Noah

    The RWE (Rematch Win Expectancy) Surprise Score is a metric that quantifies how “surprising” the RWE result is when compared to the real game score. The Calculation The Surprise Score is calculated by a combination of X teams real points vs RWE points, the real point differential vs RWE point differential, and extra point being… Read more

  • Finding Expected Value of College Football Recruits

    Noah

    Question: How can we better evaluate college recruits using positional adjustments and expected value? To answer this, I analyzed recruiting data from 2013 to 2026, combining on3’s industry rankings with NFL Draft data and PFF grades. Here’s what I found: Using this data, I developed a model to assign each recruit an expected value on… Read more

  • Rematch Win Expectancy (RWE): A Predictive Metric for Football Teams

    Noah

    Originally written in 2021. There may be some outdated information. Abstract: Rematch Win Expectancy (RWE) is a predictive metric, estimating the probability that Team X would defeat Team Y in a rematch based on the sustainable aspects of their original football game. RWE draws inspiration from Bill Connelly’s “Postgame Win Expectancy” but seeks to shift… Read more

  • College Football Positional Value

    Noah

    Question: What is the order of importance for each college football position? To answer this I gathered data from the 2021, 2022, and 2023 college football seasons. For response variables I used yards per play and EPA for each offense, defense, and net. For explanatory variables I used PFF grades by position. When multiple players… Read more